MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 19th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! These are the top 50 MLB free agents by our estimation of their earning power. To view the full 2024-25 free agent list, . This list is a labor of love that represents more than a month of work by Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams. We live and breathe MLB free agency at this website, and weve spent countle s hours debating these contract projections. While we reached a general consensus on the contracts, points of disagreement certainly remain. Weve each made our own set of team picks as well, but its worth noting the difficulty in getting even one-fifth of those correct. Please note that some clubs are under-represented in our team picks, but there will be notable free agent signings outside of our top 50, and some teams prefer to supplement via trade. A team only having one top-50 signing or not signing any of our top 50 free agents is not an indication that we feel said team will idly sit on its hands all offseason. Making team picks is part of the fun, which is why we hold a free agent prediction contest every year! This years contest is currently open and closes at 11pm central time on November 11th. ! You can change your picks up until the deadline. Keep in mind that any player who signs prior to the deadline will be excluded from the results. Were proud to be an independently-owned baseball website providing high-quality MLB hot stove analysis for the last 19 years. We appreciate that youve chosen us over the alternatives, most of which are ma sive corporations. Please consider supporting us directly with a . Benefits include ad-free browsing, acce s to our awesome contract tracker research tool, acce s to our annual Offseason Outlook series (providing deep dives on what the winter may hold for all 30 clubs), acce s to our agency database, exclusive weekly articles from Anthony and Steve, an exclusive weekly mailbag with Tim and exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony. Its well worth your while if youre a regular MLBTR reader, and it comes with a 100% money-back guarantee. Also, be sure to keep up with the offseason madne s by ! The 2024-25 MLB free agent market is headlined by arguably the most in-demand position player since Alex Rodriguez redefined free agent expectations with a 10-year, $252MM contract from the Rangers back in 2000. We vetted these as much as po sible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know well be off on some. Have your say on all of this in the comment section! One free agent of note who is not ranked on our list is Japanese phenom , the ace of Nippon Profe sional Baseballs Chiba Lotte Marines. Its po sible that Sasaki will be posted this winter, and its an inevitability that hell make his way to MLB at some point, even if not this offseason. For the time being, were operating under the a sumption that Sasaki will remain in Japan. Were he to be posted right now, hed be considered an amateur under MLBs international free agency guidelines, as the league stipulates that a player must be at least 25 years of age and have six-plus seasons of profe sional ball under his belt to be considered a profe sional. Sasaki just turned 23 yesterday. As an amateur, he would be restricted to a minor league deal with a signing bonus coming from the leagues hard-capped bonus pool system. Hed earn well under $10MM. If Sasaki waits even two years until hes a 25-year-old, he could take aim at Yoshinobu Yamamotos $325MM contract. Sasaki has pitched in four NPB seasons and boasts a career 2.10 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. Thanks to Anthony and Darragh for helping to split the workload on some of the player write-ups on this years list! On to our top 50 free agents: 1. : Thirteen years, $600MM Tim Dierkes prediction: Yankees / Anthony Francos prediction: Yankees / Darragh McDonalds prediction: Mets / Steve Adams prediction: Mets Soto isnt just one of the best hitters on the planet, hes one of the youngest and thus most appealing free agents in recent history. Given how long hes been in league and how dominant hes been since day one, its easy to forget that Soto played the entire 2024 regular season at just 25 years of age. Teammate Aaron Judge didnt even play a full big league season until he was 25. Its rare for a player to even make his big league debut at 19, let alone to immediately break out as a star. Thats precisely what Soto did, however, belting an opposite-field home run off Chad Green in his second big league plate appearance. One home run doesnt make anyone a star, of course, but Soto was completely unfazed by MLB pitching and went on to post a .292/.406/.517 batting line and swat 22 homers all before turning 20. In the entire history of the game, no one as young as Soto has turned in a season that good. Sotos 142 OPS+ in his rookie season is the best in MLB history (min. 300 plate appearances). Sotos debut harkened back to Hall of Famer Mel Otts jaw-dropping 19-year-old rookie season with the New York Giants exactly 90 years prior. Good as Soto was in 2018s rookie showing, hes only gotten better. Soto never struck out at even a league-average clip, but he sat at 20% in his first two seasons and has cut back since, bottoming out at 14.2% in 2021 and checking in at 16.7% with the Yankees in 2024. Hes walked more often than hes struck out in each of the past five seasons (19.8% walk rate, 15.8% strikeout rate in that span) and belted 145 home runs along the way. Soto set a new highwater mark in that regard this season, clubbing 41 big flies in the first of what will very likely be multiple 40-homer campaigns in a career thats squarely on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Sotos greatne s has extended beyond the regular season. His reaction after obliterating a high fastball from Guardians standout reliever Hunter Gaddis and effectively sending the Yankees to the World Series is still fresh in everyones memory, but this isnt his first October rodeo. Soto starred for the Nationals 2019 World Series club. The Cardinals kept him quiet during that years NLCS, but he had a big showing against the Dodgers in the NLDS and caught absolute fire under the bright lights of the World Series, going 9-for-27 with three homers, a pair of doubles and five walks. This years postseason went even better; Soto was the Yankees most consistently (and at times only) productive hitter. He reached base in all 14 playoff games and turned in a huge .327/.469/.633 slash with four homers, three doubles and more walks (14) than strikeouts (9). Theres little Soto hasnt already accomplished. At 25, hes a former Home Run Derby winner, National League batting champion and four-time All-Star. Hes won a World Series and participated in another. Soto hasnt won an MVP at least not yet but will a suredly pick up his fourth top-six finish in seven big league seasons in a few weeks. Hes not going to win this years award in the AL, thanks to outrageous seasons from Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., but Sotos 2024 numbers would have made him a favorite in many other years. When it comes to Sotos contract, any and all historical norms can be to sed out. You could argue that the last time a superstar of this caliber reached free agency at such a young age is Sotos former teammate Bryce Harper, but wed posit that this is the most appealing blend of youth and statistical dominance since Alex Rodriguez stunned the entire sports world with a 10-year, $252MM contract to sign with the Rangers. Theres little doubt Soto will sign a contract of at least a decade in length. The question becomes one of how long a team will be willing to go at what figures to be a new record average annual value (setting aside Shohei Ohtanis overwhelmingly deferred $700MM contract, which came with an NPV closer to $43.7MM, using the MLBPAs number). A 12-year deal would pay Soto through age-37, but its not out of the question that a team will go later into his career than that. The Yankees guaranteed Judge $40MM annually through his age-39 season. Soto and agent Scott Boras already rejected a reported 15-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals in 2021, before he was traded to the Padres. Soto has since pocketed $54MM in arbitration and now seems a lock to top the $386MM remainder; his historic bet on himself has paid off, and Boras will now surely be taking aim at both a precedent-setting average annual value and guarantee. In the wake of the Ohtani contract, : The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort. Thats a reference to the MLBPAs present-day valuation of $437,830,563 of Ohtanis contract (which, of course, was announced as a ten-year, $700MM deal but defers $68MM annually). A mega-contract that lacks deferrals and sets a more concrete AAV record and present-day value record seems likely to be the target, and based on the expected bidders, Soto and Boras have a very good chance of reaching it. The Yankees, of course, are prepared to get into a bidding war to retain the star for whom they traded last offseason. The cro stown Mets enter the offseason with with nearly $200MM of contractual obligations coming off the books and a spendthrift owner wholl be emboldened by his clubs unexpected run to the NLCS. Sotos original club, the Nationals (who took care of a ma sive portion of their rebuilding effort in one fell swoop with the trade that sent Soto to San Diego), would reportedly love a reunion with him. Their president of baseball operations, Mike Rizzo, has stated on record hes in the market for middle-of-the-order bats this winter. Newly minted Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey has lamented the lack of star power on the teams roster in recent years and spoke at his introductory pre s conference and invoked the names of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Willie McCovey, Will Clark, Tim Lincecum and more in pledging to get the Giants back into the memory-making busine s. Nary a star player hits the market without Padres president A.J. Preller throwing his hat into the ring. The Dodgers will surely look into the po sibility, and the Blue Jays could get involved, too; they made a spirited run at Ohtani last offseason. Many expect the bidding to come down to the two New York clubs, but Soto is a unique free agent who could well command genuine interest from an out-of-the-blue suitor with a clean payroll outlook and a team on the rise. No ones going to call the Tigers or Orioles anything more than a dark-horse (or perhaps just a pipe dream), but both have nearly blank-slate payrolls. Soto received a qualifying offer and will naturally reject that. The draft compensation attached to him wont matter one iota. This is a once-every-quarter-century free agent. The bidding for Soto will be wild, and were expecting him to indeed topple the present-day total and average annual value of Ohtanis contract. Signed with Mets for 15 years, $765MM. 2. : Seven years, $200MM Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Red Sox Burnes headlines a strong cla s of free agent pitchers, leading the pack as a former Cy Young winner (2021) with an appealing blend of durability and relative youth. Hes younger and/or healthier than the other top starting pitchers wholl follow him on this list. Burnes didnt exactly hit the ground running in his MLB career he lost his rotation spot early in 2019 and was torched for an 8.82 ERA that season overall but Burnes made good on his top prospect billing and status as an analytics darling the following year when he broke out with a 2.11 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign. Hes been a dominant workhorse since. The only two IL placements of Burnes career have been for an oblique strain and for Covid. Hes never had an arm injury. Burnes has pitched at least 193 innings in each of the past three seasons (and 167 or more in each of the past four). The Orioles gave up two top prospects (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) and their 2024 Competitive Balance draft pick in order to acquire one year of Burnes from the Brewers. It was a strong return that speaks to the manner in which Burnes is perceived around the sport. He rewarded that weighty price by giving the Os 32 starts and his fourth sub-3.00 ERA in the past five seasons. Burned tallied 194 1/3 innings in Baltimore, notched a 2.92 ERA, and then held the Royals to just one run in eight innings, coming out on the losing end of a masterful playoff pitchers duel against Cole Ragans. Dating back to 2021, Burnes ranks fourth among all big league pitchers with 757 innings pitched. Hes sixth in ERA in that time, with a 2.94 mark thats a near-mirror image of his 2024 season. Burnes threw harder than ever with the Orioles, averaging a career-best 95.3 mph on his devastating cutter and 97 mph on his seldom-used two-seamer. This years 6.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career and his lowest mark since the 5.2% rate he turned in during his Cy Young-winning 2021 campaign. Burnes checks so many boxes for what teams would seek in a playoff-caliber starter, but hes not without red flags. The right-hander might be throwing as hard as he ever has been, but hes also mi sing bats at the lowest rate of his big league career. His 2024 strikeout rate clocked in at 23.1%. The league-average pitcher this season sat at 22.6% (22% flat, for starters). Burnes allowed more contact on pitches within the strike zone than he has at any point in his career. Hitters connected on 86.8% of their swings at in-zone pitches against Burnes a ma sive increase from the 80.5% mark he showed back in 2021. Its po sible theres still upside for a bit more, as Burnes 12.9% swinging-strike rate is two percentage points north of league-average, but Burnes is no longer the bat-mi sing strikeout monster he was earlier in his career, when he punched out 36% of opponents in 2020-21. Even if Burnes never gets that strikeout rate back up into the 30s, hes still a durable pitcher who throws hard, rarely walks opponents, mi ses bats at an above-average level and manages contact well. He received a qualifying offer and will turn it down without a second thought. While Burnes reputation might lead some to think he could top $250MM, were predicting a more modest total based on the dip in strikeouts and swinging strikes. Burnes is still clearly a very good pitcher whod be the No. 1 arm on the majority of pitching staffs around the league, and a $200MM guarantee is nothing to sneeze at. Only eight pitchers have ever reached that threshold in the past. Burnes will look to become the ninth, and hell have no shortage of interested suitors. Beyond the incumbent Orioles, its likely that the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Tigers and Mets (where former Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns is now running the show) will all show some degree of interest. Signed with Diamondbacks for six years, $210MM. 3. : Seven years, $182MM Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Astros / Darragh: Astros / Steve: Mariners At the beginning of the 2024 season, Bregman looked lost. The two-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger winner flailed through the 2024 campaigns first six weeks, slashing an anemic .201/.270/.264 through May 12 his first 159 plate appearances of the season. Its hard to start a platform season before free agency much worse. On May 13, Bregman connected on a pair of home runs his second and third of the season and things began to click. By Memorial Day weekend, he looked fully back on track, homering five times in a span of seven games as he continued to pull his batting line out of the gutter. From the point of that two-homer breakout onward, Bregman tallied 475 plate appearances and posted a .279/.331/.515 batting line 39% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. He finished out the season with 26 homers, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and three steals. Both Defensive Runs Saved (6) and Outs Above Average (6) agree that his defense remained quite strong. As is always the case, Bregman was one of the sports toughest strikeouts, fanning in only 13.6% of his plate appearances practically a dead match for his career 13.4% mark. Outside of a 24% strikeout rate in his 49-game rookie showing back in 2016, Bregman has never punched out in even 16% of his plate appearances during a season. It was nearly impo sible to get a fastball by him in 2024. Statcast measured his whiff rate against fastballs at 8.7%, the lowest rate hes ever posted in a full season. Only 2% of big league hitters had a lower overall whiff rate in 2024 than Bregman. His bat-to-ball skills are elite. On top of the on-field performance, Bregman will draw interest because of his clubhouse presence. Hes regarded as a fiery clubhouse leader. Jose Altuve has publicly campaigned for Astros ownership to keep Bregman in Houston several times throughout the seasons second half. One rival general manager who hopes to sign Bregman told late in the season: He would completely change our clubhouse for the better. Bregman isnt without red flags, however, even setting aside that rough start in 2024. The 30-year-old former No. 2 overall draft pick saw his walk rate nearly cut in half, dropping from 12.7% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024. From 2018-23, Bregman drew a free pa s in nearly 14% of his trips to the plate. The resulting .315 on-base percentage this year was downright pedestrian. If theres a silver lining, its that Bregman clearly didnt suddenly lose all recognition of the strike zone. His chase rate on pitches off the plate spiked, but only relative to his own excellent standards. In the six prior seasons, Bregman chased only 17.1% of pitches off the plate. In 2024, that jumped to 22.2% a notable increase but also still way below the 28.6% leaguewide average. The uptick in chases was reflective of a generally more aggre sive approach. Bregman swung at 44.9% of the pitches he saw in 24, compared to just 38% from 2018-23. His contact rates remained elite. Theres perhaps some temptation to think that a pull-oriented righty hitter like Bregman is a product of Minute Maid Parks short left-field porch: the Crawford Boxes. He indeed hit for more power in Houston this season than on the road, but his career splits tell another story. Since his 2016 debut, Bregman has slashed .270/.369/.476 at home and .275/.362/.489 on the road. Hes been effectively the same hitter, regardle s of setting, and if anything has shown slightly more power away from Minute Maid Park. Its also worth mentioning Bregmans participation in the Astros sign-stealing efforts during the 2017-18 seasons. Bregman in the wake of the scandal breaking. The scandal did not seem to affect the markets of other participants such as George Springer and Carlos Correa, though its likely not all executives and players would welcome Bregman. Bregman isnt hitting free agency at the ideal time. Hell play next season at 31. Thats not old for a free agent, but itll likely prevent him from securing anything larger than a seven-year deal. In fact, only two hitters in the past decade have signed a free-agent deal of seven years or more heading into free agency ahead of their age-31 season or later: Marcus Semien and Aaron Judge. Good as a player as Bregman is, hes not Judge. Semien stands as a more plausible comp, however. Bregman and agent Scott Boras will surely be seeking a $200MM+ guarantee, but thats a lofty target for someone whos already completed his age-30 season. Whether a seven-year deal (or more) is there remains to be seen, but he should find offers of at least six years. Matt Chapman just signed a six-year, $151MM extension beginning in his age-32 season. Thats going to be viewed as something of a floor for Bregman, and he should top that as the younger and more consistent offensive player. The incumbent Astros have would surely love to have Bregman back, but GM Dana Brown has already . Theyve also never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarezs six-year extension ($115MM) or larger than Jose Altuves $151MM pact. Re-signing Bregman would very likely require setting a new benchmark for the organization. It seems likelier that hell reject a qualifying offer and net them a draft pick. If not Houston, Bregman could see interest from the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Tigers and Royals. Detroit will draw plenty of rumors due to Bregmans ties to manager A.J. Hinch. The Mets could move Mark Vientos to first base if Pete Alonso departs. The Mariners have never given out a contract of this magnitude under Jerry Dipoto but have been looking to reshape their offense and cut their strikeout rate for several years. The Royals have never spent like this in free agency but did just sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a mega-deal. Its not completely out of the question that a team could sign Bregman to play shortstop for a season or two before moving him to third base, either, which could lead to some surprise suitors. Signed with Red Sox for three years, $120MM. Includes deferred money. 4. : Five years, $160MM Tim: Mets / Anthony: Red Sox / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Dodgers Snell won the second Cy Young Award of his career in 2023, rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres and hit the market in search of the rare $200MM deal for a starting pitcher. Thats an understandable goal for a two-time Cy Young winner, but it didnt happen. After languishing on the market all winter, he signed a two-year deal with the Giants in spring training one that allowed him to opt out following the contracts first year. The contract immediately looked like a mistake. Snell rushed through his ramp-up to the season and was absolutely shelled in his first three starts as a Giant: 11 2/3 innings, 15 earned runs. The Giants placed him on the injured list with an adductor strain, though plenty of cynics chalked it up to a phantom IL stint for a pitcher whod overplayed his hand in free agency and was paying the price. Snells return only further fueled that narrative. He was activated, made three more starts with a 7.50 ERA, and went back on the IL with a groin strain. Hed made six starts and posted a 9.51 ERA. Snells start was so catastrophic that he wasnt even a consideration for the June edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings. Then, Snell got healthy. The left-hander returned on July 9 with five shutout innings over the Blue Jays and never looked back. He yielded only two earned runs over five starts, spanning 33 innings. That was headlined by a no-hitter against the Reds at Cincinnatis Great American Ball Park and by a similarly eye-popping 15-strikeout performance against the Rockies. From July 9 through seasons end, Snell didnt just recapture his Cy Young form he improved upon it. He was the best pitcher on the planet for three months, rattling off 80 1/3 innings with a downright comical 1.23 ERA. He fanned a whopping 38.1% of his opponents. Snell won a Cy Young in 23 in spite of a 13.3% walk rate; down the stretch in 24, he walked 10% of his opponents. Thats still higher than the 8.2% league average but is neverthele s a major improvement. The very idea of Snell opting out of his contract wouldve seemed laughable at the seasons halfway point. Now, hes made those first six starts look like an aberration. What was once a screaming red flag now looks more like a genuine injury-related outlier. Over his past 84 big league starts (dating back to the Padres pitching coach change in 2021, when Snell noticeably altered his pitch usage), Snell has posted a 2.72 ERA and fanned 33.1% of his opponents against an 11.2% walk rate. Thats including that calamitous start to the 2024 season. We cant simply ignore those starts they happened but if youre willing to genuinely chalk it up to injury and the lack of a proper spring training and set those six games aside, Snells ERA in that same span drops to 2.35. Snell will perhaps always have some degree of ups and downs. Its inevitable for a pitcher who has elite stuff but below-average command. But, even if hes something of a slow starter, he finds his groove practically every season. I took a look at Snells resurgence late in the 2024 campaign and came to the conclusion that he could stake a claim as being one of the greatest second-half pitchers in MLB history. Snell has by no means been a bad first-half pitcher, but his career ERAs in July, August and September are 2.43, 2.44 and 2.14. He has a 3.33 ERA in 48 1/3 postseason innings. The biggest flaw for Snell at this point doesnt have anything to do with his raw ability its simply that hell pitch next season at 32. Theres been exactly one deal longer than five years for a pitcher beginning in his age-32 season or later over the past decade: Zack Greinkes six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. That deal stunned the baseball world at the time Grant Anderson Jersey and has been proven a clear outlier since. Snell and Boras could try to repeat that feat and secure six years. Snell has pitched at such a high level that its easy to see his argument for doing so. But the likelier outcome is a shorter-term deal four years at a super-premium annual rate or five years at a very strong (but slightly le ser) annual rate. Were going with the latter for our prediction. The Giants arent likely to re-sign him, as , but Snell will have no shortage of big-money and/or clean-payroll teams pursuing him. The Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Orioles, Tigers, Padres and Cubs will all be in the market for starting pitching this winter. The Yankees had interest last offseason and could consider another run at Snell if Soto signs elsewhere. Snell cant receive a second qualifying offer, which only helps his case. Signed with Dodgers for five years, $182MM. Includes deferred money. 5. : Six years, $160MM Tim: Giants / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Giants Adames has rare power for a shortstop, topping 30 homers in two of the past three seasons including in 2024, when he swatted a career-high 32 taters. Over the past four seasons, no shortstop has hit more than Adames, whos tied with Corey Seager for the lead at the position (112). Strikeouts have been an i sue in the past, but Adames has dropped his strikeout rate in four straight seasons now and just posted the best in-zone contact rate of his career (84.2%). Adames 25.1% strikeout rate is the lowest hes posted in a full season. He doesnt have elite exit velocity or hard-hit rates, but his barrel rate (as measured by Statcast) is consistently excellent. The average MLB player carried a 7.8% barrel rate in 2024; Adames was at 12% and owns a combined 12.2% barrel rate over the past four seasons. Heading into the 2024 season, Adames was regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball perhaps the second-best. Swanson won the NL Gold Glove at the position in both 2022 and 2023, but Adames combined for 25 Outs Above Average and 17 Defensive Runs Saved in that time. (Dansby Swanson was at 40 and 27, respectively.) His 2024 season, however, brought a surprising and substantial decline. Adames made a career-worst 20 errors. DRS pegged him at a stunning -16, while OAA dropped his glovework to average. Statcast still measured Swansons range and arm strength to both be well above average, which is more encouraging if hed had a stark decline in either. Adames reps at CAA Baseball will need to convince interested teams that the rash of errors isnt something that will repeat itself. Eight of the 20 errors came in a span of just three weeks from late July through mid-August, and perhaps theyll try to sell that as a brief period where his defensive mechanics slipped or where he was playing through a minor injury. Regardle s of whatever explanation is offered, its an alarming trend for a typically surehanded defender with plus range. As Adames defense slipped, his baserunning strengthened. He stole a career-high 21 bases in 2024 and was extremely efficient in doing so, getting caught just four times (84% succe s). Adames entered the season with only 30 total steals in his career. The uptick in running was perhaps due to the Brewers managerial change, as multiple members of the Milwaukee roster posted career-high totals and the team ranked second in MLB after not placing higher than tenth since 2019. Whatever the reason, Adames showed himself to be a savvy base stealer despite po se sing exactly average sprint speed (27.4 ft/sec). Adames hits the market having just turned 29. That puts him at the same age each of Swanson ($177MM), Trevor Story ($140MM) and Javier Baez ($140MM) each scored highly lucrative long-term deals. Granted, none of those contract has panned out as hoped so far, but the outcome of other contracts typically hasnt prevented players of similar ages/profiles from doing well on the market. The incumbent Brewers love Adames but probably wont be in the mix if the bidding reaches the point were predicting here at MLBTR. Other po sibilities include the Giants, Dodgers and Tigers. Some clubs could also view Adames as a third base option, which would open up fits with any of the Yankees, Royals, Mariners, and Mets. The Braves are an oft-cited fit and have a clear need at shortstop, but theyre already facing a ma sive luxury tax bill and typically havent spent at this level in free agency, preferring to extend younger players. Signed with Giants for seven years, $182MM. 6. : Six years, $156MM Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Dodgers / Darragh: Cubs / Steve: Cubs Fried doesnt have the Cy Young Awards of the earlier pitchers on the list, but he has a pair of top-five finishes (including a 2022 runner-up showing) and has been the anchor of Atlantas rotation for more than a half decade. Hes all but a lock to post a low-3.00s or upper-2.00s ERA every season, with his earned run average clocking in at 3.25 or lower in each of the past five. Fried has a combined 2.81 ERA in 112 starts in that time. While hes not the prototypical bat-mi sing ace wholl regularly pile up strikeouts in droves, Fried has solid and consistent velocity from the left side, averaging either 93.9 mph or 94.0 mph on his four-seamer in each of the past four seasons, per Statcast. His strikeout rate in that time is slightly above-average but not elite, at 23.7%. What has been elite is Frieds command (combined 6.1% walk rate over the past four seasons) and his ability to pile up grounders. Fried has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 51% league-average in 2024 was 42.2% and he peaked with an outstanding 58.8% this past season. Framber Valdez was the only qualified starter in baseball with a better mark. That penchant for grounders helps Fried avoid the long ball better than most pitchers; he hasnt averaged even 0.9 homers per nine innings since his first full season, in 2019. Since 2020, the only qualified starters in MLB with a lower HR/9 mark are the aforementioned Valdez and fellow ground-ball wizard Logan Webb. During that same time, not one of the qualified 143 starting pitchers has a lower opponents barrel rate than Frieds 4.7%. Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher in that time with a lower average exit velocity on his batted balls; hes at 86 mph to Frieds 86.1. Fried might not reach double-digit strikeouts as often as many of his fellow aces, but hes also going to avoid hard contact better than just about any of them. While itd be a misnomer to label Fried an injury-prone pitcher, the past two seasons have raised some degree of red flags. Fried was limited to 14 starts in 2023 by a forearm strain. He did not require surgery and was excellent both before and after the injury. He bounced back with 29 starts and 174 1/3 innings during the 2024 regular season, but the few starts he mi sed were due to an injury in that same forearm. This wasnt a strain but rather an inflamed nerve. Still, hell enter next year as a 31-year-old starter whos had IL stints owing to forearm troubles in consecutive seasons. The 2024 workload and the nature of his 2024 injury arent nearly as worrying as their 2023 counterparts, but its not an ideal set of circumstances for any pitcher. Furthermore, while Fried has generally avoided major injuries aside from that 2023 strain, hes also a bit le s than a consummate workhorse wholl provide bulk innings. Hes never started more than 30 games in a single season and only topped 180 innings once. He might not get hurt for long periods of time, but hes not consistently turning out 32-33 starts and 180-200 innings per season, either. Itd be fair for any club to expect that even in a good season, Fried will mi s two or three starts. Thats not a backbreaking factor but is still something a club will consider, given the magnitude of the contract hell be seeking and quite likely will command. The Braves love Fried and would love to have him back. He made his feelings toward Atlanta clear in an emotional interview after the teams season ended. That said, the Braves have had more than six years to hammer out an extension and havent gotten there. Atlanta hasnt gone past $22MM in annual salary on any of the long-term extensions theyve doled out to their core. Fried seems overwhelmingly likely to command a good bit more than that on a per-year basis, and because of their immense swath of extensions, the Braves are now facing a weighty luxury-tax bill. Re-signing Fried would effectively cement them as perennial luxury payors likely requiring them to go into the upper tiers of penalization on a yearly basis. The Athletics David OBrien that the Braves arent likely to get into a bidding war for Fried, but has since taken note of how the team has . Its still worth considering how long theyve gone without an extension, and that jam-packed luxury ledger. Atlanta will probably be involved to a point, but the years and dollars being discu sed will likely quickly escalate beyond their comfort zone, given those factors. Other teams who could make a play for Fried include the Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres (who originally drafted him), Cubs, Orioles, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers. Six-year deals for pitchers beginning at age-31 or later are rare, with only five in the past decade (Greinke, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester). Fried is all but a lock to command a five-year deal and stands a good chance at becoming the sixth 31-year-old to reach that six-year term, even after he makes the obvious decision to reject a qualifying offer. Signed with Yankees for eight years, $218MM. 7. : Five years, $125MM Tim: Nationals / Anthony: Nationals / Darragh: Nationals / Steve: Mets Alonso will be among the more divisive free agents on this years cla s. On one hand, hes been among the games most consistent power threats from the moment he set foot in MLB. Only Aaron Judge (232) has more home runs than Alonsos 226 dating back to 2019. Third place isnt especially close. Kyle Schwarber sits at 212. Matt Olson (206) and Shohei Ohtani (203) are the only others who have even topped 180. Alonsos raw power is elite, and he generally has little problem getting to it in a game setting. Durability plays a significant role in Alonsos power totals as well and will be a big marketing point in his favor. Hes never mi sed more than 10 games in a given season, nor has he checked in south of 637 plate appearances in a 162-game campaign. Only Marcus Semien and Freddie Freeman have drawn more plate appearances than Alonso since 2019. Any team that signs Alonso can feel good about the fact that theyre adding a day-in, day-out source of game-changing power to the middle of their order. The rest of Alonsos skill set, however, is at odds with many of the traits modern front offices value when shopping on the open market. Hes limited to first base and isnt an especially good defender there. Defensive Runs Saved has him about average in his career but a negative (-3) in 2024. Statcasts Outs Above Average has consistently panned his glovework, never more so than in 2024 (-8). Hes also a well below-average runner, with his sprint speed landing at 26.1 feet per second just in the 20th percentile of big league hitters. Alonso doesnt strike out or walk as often as the prototypical three true outcomes hitter. Hes fanned in 22.8% of his career plate appearances (24.7% in 2024). His 9.9% walk rate (10.1% in 24) is above average but far from plus. Hes never walked at a higher clip than the 10.4% he did as a rookie and never walked in fewer than 9.4% of his plate appearances. Between his good-not-great walk rate, penchant for infield flies and plodding speed, Alonso tends to have fairly pedestrian on-base percentages. Hes at .339 for his career but just .324 over the past two seasons. He popped 34 homers in his platform year, but thats a career-low mark in a 162-game season (as was his .219 ISO). Supporters of Alonso will tout his consistent power, his durability and his flair for the dramatic. Hes a regular participant in the Home Run Derby and won the event in 2021. The Polar Bear was at his best under the bright lights of October, hitting .273/.431/.568 (176 wRC+) with four homers during the Mets postseason run. That includes a ninth-inning three-run shot off Milwaukee closer Devin Williams that effectively propelled the Mets from the Wild Card round into the NLDS. Detractors will label Alonso as one-dimensional. Hes as prominent a source of power as youll find in the game but isnt really plus in any other area. Hes heading into his age-30 season, which is fairly standard. Hes not old but also doesnt have the benefit of youth on his side. Back in 2023, the Mets reportedly offered Alonso a seven-year, $158MM extension that wouldve covered his the 2024-30 seasons. He (obviously) did not accept. Alonso took home a $20.5MM salary in his final arbitration season, which wouldve been year one of that contract. With anything north of $138MM, he can come ahead in that bet on himself. Even if he takes a heftier AAV on a five-year arrangement, that can be considered a win. We debated a wide range of contracts for Alonso. Hes an imperfect free agent who 15 years ago wouldve likely been a lock for $200MM+, given his gaudy counting stats. Todays front offices care more about defensive utility and on-base percentage, however. If Alonso and Scott Boras go out seeking $200MM+, theres a real po sibility for a Cody Bellinger situation where hes left to take a short-term deal with opt-outs. Were going with a five-year deal at a heftier AAV than the one he turned down, and its po sible therell be some opt-outs or convoluted options woven throughout as well. Alonso technically comes out behind his reported extension offer with this prediction, but only because were putting him down for one fewer season. If he tops $12MM after a five-year deal certainly plausible or secures some kind of opt-out or player option, he could realistically end up ahead in the end. Hell reject a qualifying offer and could draw interest from the Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, Nationals and (of course) the incumbent Mets. Signed with Mets for two years, $54MM. 8. : Five years, $115MM Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Tigers As far as prove-it deals go, Flaherty stands as one of the most succe sful cases in recent memory. The former first-round pick and top prospect went from one of the National Leagues burgeoning young aces to an injury reclamation in a span of just a few years, as shoulder injuries derailed his momentum after a brilliant 2019 campaign. He had a full, healthy season between the Cardinals and Orioles in 2023 but hit the market on the heels of a 4.99 ERA. Baltimore had acquired him in hopes of unlocking some of his prior form and cashing in down the stretch and into the playoffs. Instead, they dropped him to the bullpen after he posted a 7.11 ERA in seven starts. The Tigers signed Flaherty, still just 28 last offseason, to a one-year deal worth $14MM. It took very little time for the move to look prescient. Flaherty pitched to a 4.00 ERA through the end of April but ended the month on a high note, with starts featuring 10 and 14 strikeouts. By mid-June, he was sitting on a 2.92 ERA through 14 starts and had emerged as one of the clearest trade candidates on the market. (Little did anyone know that the Tigers would break out as the games hottest post-deadline team and reach the postseason, even after trading Flaherty to the Dodgers.) Flaherty posted a 2.95 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate in 18 brilliant starts with Detroit. He wasnt quite as good with Los Angeles, but he still gave the Dodgers 55 1/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball, fanning 26.1% of his opponents against an 8.1% walk rate. The season-long numbers remained strong overall, and Flaherty will now return to the open market ahead of his age-29 season making him the youngest of the top end starters available and without a qualifying offer, as hes ineligible to receive one after being traded midseason. There could be some questions about his health over a long-term deal. Beyond the previously noted shoulder injuries that hampered him earlier in his career, there were concerns about the health of his back leading into the trade deadline. The Yankees reportedly reached a preliminary agreement on a deal to acquire Flaherty but nixed the trade after reviewing the right-handers medical records. That eventually led Flaherty to instead be traded to the Dodgers for what some at the time considered a light return. (Catcher Thayron Liranzo has since mashed his way onto top-100 rankings, while Trey Sweeney came to the majors and became Detroits starting shortstop down the stretch, all of which has presumably altered some perceptions of the deal.) Flaherty reached the majors as a touted prospect, had some early succe s before injuries clouded his outlook and then required multiple changes of scenery before truly breaking out. There are some Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray parallels in terms of career arc, but Flaherty is reaching the market two years younger than Gausman and one year younger than Ray. Those arent perfect comps, as Gausman had consecutive excellent seasons under his belt while Ray won a Cy Young prior to his own free agency. That pair of pitchers signed five-year deals worth $110MM and $115MM, respectively. Between age and the lack of a QO, were expecting Flaherty to land a somewhat improved version of that deal, though its certainly po sible that his injury history stops things at four years (or that interest is fierce enough to push to six at a slightly lower AAV). Both of Flahertys 2024 teams could pursue a reunion. The Dodgers and Tigers will both be in the mix for starters this winter. We know the Yankees had deadline interest. The same teams listed as viable suitors for Burnes, Snell and Fried all apply here, though its hard to imagine the Orioles handing out a nine-figure deal after their trade for Flaherty didnt pan out well in 2023. The contract were predicting is far enough below that top trio that some smaller-market clubs could plausibly join the Red Sox, Mets, Giants, etc. in pursuit. Signed with Tigers for two years, $35MM. 9. : Four years, $80MM Tim: Royals / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Yankees If youre a fan of old school sluggers who mash taters and rack up ribbies, Santander is your kind of guy. Tony Taters left the yard a career-high 44 times in 2024 and plated 102 runs along the way. The 30-year-old switch-hitter battered opponents with total disregard of handedne s, showing huge power against righties and lefties alike. (Notably, he was a bit more strikeout prone as a right-hander facing lefties.) Santander has now clubbed 105 homers and driven in 286 runners over the past three seasons all while running a lower-than-average 20.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately for Santander, todays brand of front office isnt as enamored of counting stats as the prior generation. On-base percentage and defense are en vogue, and as thunderous as his bat has been, his rate stats and glovework are le s encouraging. Santander has only posted an average walk rate twice in his career, and both times (2022 and 2024) he did so by le s than half a percentage point. This past seasons 8.7% walk rate was his career-high, but it was accompanied by a career-low .235 average and thus a below-average .308 on-base percentage. Santander ranks 19th among 364 qualified hitters with 154 home runs dating back to 2019 and is tied for 250th with a .310 OBP. Defensively, Santander hasnt nece sarily been a butcher, but hes a below-average corner outfielder. Statcast measures his average sprint speed at 26 feet per second, which puts him in just the 18th percentile of big leaguers. Unsurprisingly, his range in the outfield is well below average, landing in the 28th percentile. Santander has above average life on his throws from the outfield but isnt the most accurate. A team could certainly live with his defense in right or left field for a couple seasons, but its unlikely to improve at this stage of his career and certainly isnt going to be an a set. Its not had to envision a scenario where Santander looks like a player who needs to be limited to DH work by the second or third season of a multi-year deal. The good news, of course, is that he has plenty of bat to be a designated hitter or perhaps to try his hand at first base, if the signing team prefers. Santander has been 24% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+, over the past three seasons (19% over the past five). This years home run barrage could prove to be a high point in his career, but he belted 28 homers in 2023 and 33 in 2022. Hes a genuine 30-homer bat who handles himself well from both sides of the plate and can at least capably handle a corner spot for a year or two. Thats an undeniably nice player to have. Weve seen this type of profile command multi-year deals in the $20MM range. Kyle Schwarber signed for four years and $79MM with the Phillies, who then gave Nick Castellanos five years and $100MM that same offseason. Its been seven years since J.D. Martinez signed for five years and $110MM with the Red Sox, but thats another example. Santanders minimal walk rates and low averages create a more worrisome OBP floor than those sluggers, but he has more defensive value right now than any of them did at the time they reached free agency. Hell very likely reject his qualifying offer and market his big bat to a slew of power-hungry teams. The Reds, Giants, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Nationals and Guardians all make some sense. Signed with Blue Jays for five years, $92.5MM. Includes deferred money. 10. : Three years, $60MM Tim: Mets / Anthony: Cubs / Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Mets This is the third straight offseason in which Manaea is a free agent. During his previous trips, he signed two-year pacts for under $30MM that allowed him to opt out after the first season. This winter should be a different story. Manaea declined a $13.5MM player option with the Mets and is poised to secure the biggest deal of his career. Manaea had spent most of 2023 in a swing role with the Giants. He signed in Queens for a rotation spot and made the most of it. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. He was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1. That didnt quite carry into October, as Manaea turned in a 4.74 ERA in four playoff starts. The strong finish coincided with a mechanical tweak. The left-hander dropped his arm angle gradually over the final couple weeks of the season. He leaned more heavily into a sinker while e sentially dropping his four-seam fastball by September. The early returns were promising. Manaea has performed at a mid-rotation level before. He turned in a trio of sub-4.00 ERA campaigns early in his career with the As. This was the best year of his career, as he set a career high in innings while running his lowest ERA in a full season. As expected, the Mets i sued a qualifying offer to Manaea, which figures to dampen his market for certain suitors. Manaea turns 33 in February. Theres no much recent precedent for teams going to four years for a pitchers age 33-36 seasons. Manaea should get three years, though, with his camp presumably shooting for a deal like the $63MM contract that Chris Ba sitt secured at age 34. Tyler Andersons $39MM deal feels like the floor. The Mets could bring Manaea back. Theyll face competition from teams like the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers, among others. Signed with Mets for three years, $75MM. 11. : Three years, $60MM Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Reds / Darragh: Royals / Steve: Tigers Apparently were sticking with the prove-it crowd here, as Hernandez wasnt able to land the multi-year deal he was seeking last offseason and instead pivoted to a short-term deal with a contender. Agent Rafa Nieves of Republik Sports that Hernandez had been seeking a three-year contract last offseason not an unreasonable ask for a player of his caliber, but Hernandez was coming off a down season in Seattle at a time when many of his potential suitors were tightening the purse strings amid uncertainty regarding their television broadcasts. Putting down a relatively weighty three-year deal on a rebound candidate was apparently a bridge too far. The Dodgers benefited from the markets inactivity, swooping in with a one-year, $23MM offer that installed Hernandez as their primary left fielder and a heart-of-the-order fixture. Hernandez appeared in 154 games and slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 home runs. His 134 wRC+, indicating he was 34% better than a league-average hitter, fell right back in line with his 2020 (142), 2021 (132) and 2022 (130) marks making the 106 he notched in his lone year with the Mariners look like an anomaly. Hernandez makes consistent, thunderous contact. Hes never posted an average exit velocity under 90 mph nor a hard-hit rate under 46%. His barrel rate over the past is a whopping 14.3% nearly double the 7.8% league average from 2024. He strikes out too much (28.8% in 2024) and hits far more grounders than one would expect from such a prodigious slugger (46.5% in 2024; 44.6% over the past three seasons). However, Hernandez is also a deceptively fast runner, clocking into the 83rd percentile of MLB hitters. That allows him to turn some of those grounders into hits and to take the occasional extra base, stretching a single into a double. He swiped 12 bags this past season, tying a career-high, and was caught only three times. Because Hernandez hits the ball so hard and runs better than many realize, his batting average is typically high enough to offset a perennially below-average walk rate. He has a .328 OBP since 2020 (including a .339 mark in 2024) despite carrying a 6.6% walk rate in that span (8.1% in 24). While his speed once allowed him to at least handle center field on a part-time basis, the now-32-year-old Hernandez is strictly limited to corner work. He also graded quite poorly there in 2024, though some of that could be playing in left field for the first time since 2021. With the Dodgers, he posted far better marks in his more limited time in right field his primary position with the Jays and Mariners from 2021-23. The three-year deal that eluded Hernandez should be there this time around, even though hes now saddled with a qualifying offer. Hernandez will surely reject hes not taking a pay cut after the year he just had and there are enough teams looking for power bats that hell be a coveted name. Weve marked him down below Santander simply due to the fact that hell play next season at 32 to Santanders 30, but theyre comparable players wholl have overlapping markets. The Tigers are specifically looking for a big right-handed bat this winter, and the Red Sox who according to Hernandez himself offered him a two-year, $28MM deal last winter are also looking to add a righty outfielder to balance out the lineup. The Reds, Blue Jays, Giants, Royals, Nats and Guards all make sense as well. Signed with Dodgers for three years, $66MM. Includes deferred money. 12. : Three years, $60MM Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Orioles / Steve: Orioles Mercurial and roller coaster dont really begin to describe Kikuchis big league tenure. The hard-throwing lefty has looked on the cusp of stardom at multiple points since coming to MLB in 2019 after a fine career with the Seibu Lions of Japans Nippon Profe sional Baseball. Hes also lost his rotation spot more than once and saw the Mariners decline a multi-year club option when the first three seasons of his contract came to an end. Back at the 2021 All-Star break, MLBTRs Steve Adams wrote about . His velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and grounder rate had all taken strides. Kikuchi pitched to a 3.18 ERA with plus rate stats through the seasons first half and looked to suddenly be putting himself in position to see the Mariners exercise a weighty four-year, $66MM club option. He promptly faded, running out of gas as he pitched to a 6.62 ERA and yielded an average of 1.70 HR/9 down the stretch. Even with that poor finish, Kikuchi declined a $13MM player option, betting that a team would be interested in his blend of velocity, whiffs, grounders and solid command. He and the Boras Corporation were correct. The Jays signed him for three years and $36MM, and his tenure in Toronto had a similar vibe to his time in Seattle. Plenty of high points, but also quite a few lows and even a demotion from the rotation. Kikuchi was a hotly sought-after name on the summer trade market, drawing interest from clubs like the Twins, Cardinals and others. But the Astros blew everyone out of the water to acquire two months of Kikuchi, and while the price they paid was steep, his results in Houston showed why they were so intrigued. With the Astros, Kikuchi more than doubled the usage of his slider, reducing his four-seam usage and nearly shelving his curveball. The results were eye-popping. In 60 innings, he pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a gaudy 31.8% strikeout rate against an excellent 5.9% walk rate. Kikuchis 13.7% swinging-strike rate was well north of the 11.1% league average. His grounder rate increased. The quality of contact against him decreased. Down the stretch, he looked like a clear, playoff-caliber No. 2 type of starter. Just which version of Kikuchi a new team gets will be an open question. Is he the at-times dominant lefty who can pile up strikeouts in droves and limit walks to the point that an ERA in the low-3.00s or upper-2.00s seems plausible? Or is he the same enigmatic, homer-prone southpaw hes always been? Kikuchis individual skills have impre sed for years now, but the sum of those parts has somehow been le ser than those individual components. That said, Kikuchi cant receive a qualifying offer and is a hard-throwing lefty whos posted a plus strikeout rate five years running including a plus walk rate to match in each of the past two seasons. Hes also been ultra-durable in his MLB career, with his only two IL stints coming due to Covid in 2021 and a neck strain in 2022. Toronto gambled on his upside in the form of a three-year deal when he was coming off a poor finish. The inverse is true now. Kikuchi will turn 34 next June, but his stock is still up relative to his last trip to the market. The Astros would surely love to have him back but have foreshadowed payroll constraints. Other viable suitors include the Tigers, Dodgers, Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers and Royals. Signed with Angels for three years, $63MM. 13. : Three years, $60MM Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Astros In April 2020, Steve Adams wrote a piece for the site entitled At the time, Walker had waited five years for an everyday opportunity in the majors, languishing in Triple-A behind names like Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto and the titular Goldschmidt while being pa sed around on waivers. The Snakes even succeeded in pa sing Walker through waivers unclaimed. At the time, Walker was coming off one breakout season but had plenty of questions surrounding him. Hed hit 29 home runs but done so in the juiced-ball season of 2019. Was the power legitimate? Yes, he could play defense, but could he sustain his offensive production over a longer period and truly become a starting-caliber first baseman? Yes. To all of it. And then some. Walker has been one of the games most underrated and overlooked stars for the past several seasons. Hes a premium defender who has emerged as a consistent threat to swat 30 home runs in a given season. He no longer runs that well, but at his best he even had above-average speed. Walker has won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons and will probably win his third in 2024 after posting terrific marks in Outs Above Average (13) and Defensive Runs Saved (7). He made just two errors in 2024, his second straight season with only two on the year. That defense and a sharp 9.9% walk rate acro s the past three seasons give Walker a nice floor even in the absence of offensive production, but that hasnt been an i sue for him. The slugger hit .251/.335/.468 with 26 homers in just 130 games this season. Were it not for an oblique strain that resulted in his first IL placement since 2021 (also for an oblique strain), hed have topped 30 homers for a third straight season. Since Opening Day 2022, Walker is a .250/.332/.481 hitter. He torched lefties in 2022-23 while posting merely above-average numbers against righties, but his 2024 splits (and his career-long splits) are more balanced. The sole reason that Walker seems limited to a three-year deal is age. He played this past season at 33 and will turn 34 during spring training next year. Were Walker a few years younger, hed likely rank ahead of Alonso on this list, given his vastly superior defense. Three-year deals for first base/DH types at this age are rare but all generally fall in the same range. Jose Abreu received an ill-fated $58.5MM guarantee beginning in his age-36 season. Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana both signed for three years and $60MM Encarnacion starting in his age-34 season and Santana in his age-32 season. Walker should follow suit with a three-year guarantee at around $20MM, give or take a million or two. The Astros, Mariners, Yankees, D-backs, Giants and Nats could be involved (as could the Mets, depending where Alonso signs). Signed with Astros for three years, $60MM. 14. : Four years, $56MM Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Yankees This years cla s doesnt feature an Edwin Diaz or a Josh Hader an elite closer who has pitched at an All-Star level for the bulk of their career. Scott, the best reliever in this years cla s, lands in the next tier down. A former Orioles draftee, Scott tantalized with huge arm strength but didnt have the command nece sary to hold a leverage spot in Baltimore. That initially continued when he was traded to the Marlins over the 2021-22 offseason, but the past two seasons have been a different story. Scott fired 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball with a career-low 7.8% walk rate in 2023. He picked up 12 saves and 24 holds while working at the back of Skip Schumakers bullpen. Scotts wildne s returned early this past season, as he walked 13 of 61 batters faced through the end of April. He dialed back in once the calendar flipped to May, walking a manageable 9.9% of batters faced over the seasons final five months. Scott fanned nearly 31% of opponents while turning in a 1.52 ERA in 59 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Padres acquired Scott alongsideBryan Hoeing in a deadline deal with the Marlins. The 30-year-old southpaw had an excellent second half and to sed 4 1/3 scorele s postseason innings with seven strikeouts (including a trio of punchouts ofShohei Ohtani in as many at-bats). Scott now has two seasons of elite production. Of the 97 relievers with at least 100 innings since the start of 2023, Scott trails onlyEmmanuel Clase with a 2.04 earned run average. His 31.3% strikeout rate checks in 15th among that group, while his 50.4% ground-ball percentage ranks 22nd. Scott has two pitches: a 97 MPH heater and a slider that typically lands in the 88-89 MPH range. Even in an era with a ton of power bullpen arms, he has rare velocity for a southpaw. This year, Scott trailed only Jose A. Ferrer,Gregory Soto,Aroldis Chapman and Rays rookieMason Montgomery in that regard. The arsenal plays against hitters of either handedne s. The Padres cant make Scott a qualifying offer he was a midseason acquisition. San Diego seems unlikely to bring him back with the other needs on the roster. Scott is better than the relievers who have landed in the three-year, $30MM range (i.e.Robert Stephenson,Taylor Rogers,Rafael Montero). He should get four years and has an outside shot at five. The four-year, $58MM deal whichRaisel Iglesias signed with the Angels could be a target for his camp. Signed with Dodgers for four years, $72MM. Includes deferred money. 15. : Three years, $51MM Tim: Nationals / Anthony: Tigers / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Giants Somewhat similar to Flaherty, Severino looked the part of an emergent young ace before injuries completely upended his trajectory. A trio of lat strains (2019, 2022, 2023), a rotator cuff strain (2022) and Tommy John surgery (2020) limited Severino to just 209 innings from 2019-23. His 2023 campaign, preceding his first trip into free agency, resulted in a disastrous 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings. The Mets signed Severino to a one-year, $13MM deal in the hope that he could rediscover some of the prior form that saw him reel off 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA and gaudy strikeout/walk rates from 2017-18 in the Bronx. Severino indeed bounced back, but not as well as the aforementioned Flaherty and not to the same level he showed early in his career. The right-hander logged 31 starts his most since 2018 and recorded a solid 3.91 earned run average. Theres no denying that the 2024 season was a succe s for Severino. Hes now positioned to land a multi-year deal in free agency and should be coveted by a wide range of teams. However, his 21.2% strikeout rate is nowhere near its 29.4% peak. His 7.9% walk rate, while better than average, is a fair bit worse than the 5.9% mark he posted in his terrific 2018 season. A four-seamer that once averaged 97.6 mph instead sat at 96.2 mph in 2024. Again, thats a strong mark, but Severino doesnt have the same power profile he did during his age-23 and age-24 breakout seasons. Nothing about Severinos 2024 season was inherently bad. He pitched like a very solid No. 3/4 starter. But while Severino carries plenty of name value from his early days as a Yankee, hes pitched more like another pair of former New York hurlers Jameson Taillon (Yankees) and Taijuan Walker (Mets) did ahead of their trips to free agency. Taillon landed four years and $68MM from the Cubs. Walker landed four years and $72MM from the Phillies. Without a qualifying offer, we felt it was po sible Severino might have gotten into that four-year, $70MM territory of Taillon and Walker. But having received such an offer, weve reduced our expectations to a three-year pact in the realm of the Royals new deal with Michael Wacha. Severino would improve the vast majority of big league rotations, and teams like the Red Sox, Reds, Giants, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Angels, Padres and Nats could all be in play. A return to Queens, remains a distinct po sibility as well, particularly with the i suance of the qualifying offer. Signed with Athletics for three years, $67MM. 16. : Three years, $45MM Tim: Padres / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Padres / Steve: Padres Profar finally turned in the kind of season that most evaluators anticipated a decade ago. The sports #1 prospect when he reached the majors with the Rangers in 2012, Profar has had a frustratingly inconsistent career. Throwing woes pushed him from second base to left field. That put more pre sure on his bat, which has bounced from decent to poor over the years. Things hit a new low in 2023. Profar signed with the Rockies for $7.75MM. He had a sub-replacement showing and was released late in the season. He returned to the Padres for the final few games of the season and re-signed on a $1MM pact for 2024. San Diego gave Profar the starting left field job almost by default. Even Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who has acquired the switch-hitter multiple times in his career, wouldnt have foreseen a season like this. Profar hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers while playing in 158 games. He set career marks in longballs and in all three slash stats. Profar deservedly earned his first All-Star nod. He finished seventh in MLB (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage. The six players above him in OBP: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez,Shohei OhtaniandBobby Witt Jr. When a player has this kind of an outlier season, its easy